Retrograde US Energy Policy

"The biggest story in the data is the dramatic growth of [US] solar energy, with a 30 percent increase in generation in a single year, which will allow solar and wind combined to overtake coal in 2024." [1]

This pie chart and quote may be one of the last bits of promising US energy news we'll get for the next few years. Many colleagues have asked my opinion about the prospects for hydrogen in the US under the new administration. Here's a breakdown of what we already know, and my guess about what's to come.

Federal Energy Policy

The new federal energy policy can be summarized as a huge step backwards that prioritizes oil and gas while demonizing intermittent renewables [2]. This ignores the fact that solar and wind are the lowest cost power generation sources to bring online and operate, which is the primary reason they have grown so rapidly in recent years.

Mitigation of greenhouse gases and pollution are existentially crucial additional benefits of renewables, making them the logical focus for growth from both an economics and environmental perspective. But propaganda trumps cost of electricity, public health, casualty losses, and the future quality of life for coming generations in the current administration.

The new secretary of energy has parroted this policy, with additional emphasis on liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the US. LNG is 85-95% methane, which is a 25 times more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide over 100 years (85 times more over 20 years). Gas leaks and intentional venting are prevalent sources of methane emissions from production, transport, and end use of LNG.

What About Hydrogen?

There is no mention of hydrogen whatsoever in any US energy policy documents released by the new administration. So what does that mean for federal policy regarding hydrogen? Let's connect some dots by enumerating a few key benefits of hydrogen in the energy sector:

1. Hydrogen produces no greenhouse gases and no pollution of any kind when used to produce electricity with fuel cells. If burned in a turbine or other combustion engine, it produces some NOx (as all combustion processes do) that can be minimized with various design and operational parameters.
2. Hydrogen can store energy at nearly unlimited scale from intermittent renewables when excess generation capacity is available, and be used to generate electricity when demand exceeds generation capacity.
3. Hydrogen's unparalleled specific energy relative to any other conventional fuel enables high performance sustainable solutions across multiple mobile and transportation sectors (e.g., aviation, rail, maritime, trucking, etc.)
4. Hydrogen provides unique energy resiliency and eliminates fuel logistics dependencies for remote or isolated regions.

Note that none of the above benefits are aligned with the new federal energy policies. Nor were they eight years ago when we saw this energy policy disaster unfold the first time around. Looking back at that timeframe may help make a clear-eyed assessment of what's to come.

The Path Ahead

Within this new reality, what is the future for hydrogen in the US? Regrettably, here are my predictions:

• Federal funding for hydrogen programs, including the hydrogen hubs, will be largely gutted. One potential exception is military applications where hydrogen addresses strategic defense and national security challenges that no other approach can match.
• States and local policies and funding will help in a few US regions. California will remain the hydrogen hotbed it has been for many years. Hawaii, New York, Pennsylvania, and parts of New England also have or may provide supportive policies for hydrogen. Texas will be a wildcard since there is much in place for hydrogen production, but may have fractured policies depending on the area (e.g., Gulf coast vs rural areas). However, many other states and locales already have policies that are hostile toward renewables and hydrogen, and will be emboldened to double down on derailing permitting and similar tactics with the new federal policies.
• Private sector funding for hydrogen systems and products has been extensive in some industry sectors and regions. Many of these hydrogen applications have demonstrated performance and economic viability at various commercial readiness levels. It's unlikely that private investors will walk away from sunk cost investments if there is an opportunity to get a reasonable return. The challenge is which global markets are the best targets if most of the US is off the table, which leads to my final prediction.
• Global regions will likely stay the course, or even accelerate hydrogen plans, as the US backs away. China will build on its lead as the largest producer and user of hydrogen and associated systems. The European Union, United Kingdom, India, South Korea, Japan, and Australia may find increased interest in new hydrogen projects in their regions with the drying up of US funds and incentives. The same for other countries and regions with established and emerging hydrogen programs such as Canada, South America, Middle East, Africa, and other countries in the Asia and Indo-Pacific regions.

[1] John Timmer, Ars Technica, Jan 27, 2025.

[2] Executive Order, Jan 20, 2025.

[3] Secretarial Order, Feb 5, 2025.

Matt Moran is the Managing Member at Moran Innovation LLC, and previous Managing Partner at Isotherm Energy. He's been developing power and propulsion systems for more than 40 years; and break-through liquid, slush, and gaseous hydrogen systems since the mid-1980s. Matt was also the Sector Manager for Energy & Materials in his last position at NASA where he worked for 31 years. He's been a co-founder in seven technology startups; and provided R&D and engineering support to many organizations. Matt has three patents and more than 50 publications including the Cryogenic Fluid Management series. He also teaches courses, workshops, and webinars on liquid hydrogen systems.

Liquid Hydrogen (LH2) Workshop Slides

LH2 Workshop Slides

At the Energy & Mobility conference last week I gave a talk that was awarded best paper and co-taught a full-day workshop on liquid hydrogen (LH2) systems. My workshop slides can be viewed here.

Also moderated a panel session on hydrogen and sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) that included representatives from Boeing, GE Aerospace, NASA, and Aero Mobility. An overview of the panelists and topics discussed can be found here.

A number of interesting topics, questions, and themes related to liquid hydrogen emerged throughout the conference. This post highlights a couple of them.

Misleading Metrics for Boil-off and Liquefaction

There are two commonly misused metrics that came up in several questions and conversations: boil-off per day and liquefaction energy loss. Unfortunately, these metrics are often asserted to be some fixed value that supposedly applies to all liquid hydrogen systems. The truth is both of these metrics are meaningless unless they are tied to a specific system and concept of operation.

In the case of LH2 boil-off losses, properly designed systems can be as low as zero or as high as several percent per day depending on the scale, insulation system, operations, cryogenic fluid management, system requirements, and other parameters. For example, the new 1.25 million usable gallon (4700 cubic meter) LH2 dewar tank at NASA Kennedy Space Center has a passive boil-off rate of less than 0.05% per day which can be reduced to zero with the integrated cryo-refrigeration option.

Liquefaction energy losses are another example of misleading metrics. Various sources place it at 20 to 30% of the energy content of hydrogen. Similar to boil-off rates, the actual value depends on the liquefaction processes used, concept of operation, use of the LH2 cooling capacity, lifecycle energy inputs, and other parameters. To illustrate, consider a system where liquefaction is accomplished by bubbling gaseous hydrogen into the bottom of a liquid hydrogen dewar. There is no electrical energy input for this isolated process, so what is the liquefaction energy loss?

Infrastructure and Microgrids

An interesting theme that came up throughout the conference is the potential synergies possible with microgrids and hydrogen infrastructure. The capability to produce, liquefy, and use hydrogen all in one location with a dedicated renewable energy microgrid is a major paradigm shift compared to legacy fuels. And it eliminates transportation and distribution along with the associated costs and losses.

This scenario has been ignored in many recent authoritative reports as I've lamented in a previous post. Fortunately, a recently published study is shedding light on the advantages of such an approach. Hopefully, new analyses will continue to build on this insight while also tackling the inaccurate boil-off and liquefaction energy loss assumptions addressed above.

Effective trade studies require appropriate assumptions that reflect real-world state-of-the-art systems. With a lifecycle treatment of the entire end-to-end architecture and operations we will get a much clearer understanding of how liquid hydrogen systems can be implemented to build out the necessary infrastructure.

Matt Moran is the Managing Member at Moran Innovation LLC, and previous Managing Partner at Isotherm Energy. He's been developing power and propulsion systems for more than 40 years; and break-through liquid, slush, and gaseous hydrogen systems since the mid-1980s. Matt was also the Sector Manager for Energy & Materials in his last position at NASA where he worked for 31 years. He's been a co-founder in seven technology startups; and provided R&D and engineering support to many organizations. Matt has three patents and more than 50 publications including the Cryogenic Fluid Management series. He also leads the monthly LH2 Era™ Webinar.

Energy Shapeshifting with Hydrogen

Day operation HyERA™ example system model: renewable power is greater than demand yielding hydrogen production and storage

A recurring question when it comes to hydrogen is whether it is an energy carrier, an energy storage method, or a fuel. The answer is yes. This versatility is why hydrogen represents a key solution to mitigating climate change across virtually all industry sectors.

No carbon emissions. No harmful environmental impacts. No strategic materials supply chain issues. No disposal or recycling challenges. And with a system lifetime measured in many decades with routine maintenance and no significant replacement costs.

There is another truly unique capability of hydrogen systems that is often overlooked: the capability to produce large quantities of potable water. But first, let's start with its role as an energy carrier.

Energy Carrier

An energy carrier is a fuel or system that enables the conversion of potential energy to other forms of energy (e.g. mechanical, thermal, chemical, or electrical). The conversion process can be shifted in time, location, or both relative to when and where the potential energy was originally created.

A common and currently ubiquitous example is natural gas. Produced by decaying organic material, it has intrinsic potential energy in the form of its heat value (a measure of energy density). It can be delivered as a gas in pipelines, or liquefied for transport. Unfortunately, natural gas is a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions via leaks and combustion emissions.

Hydrogen has all the energy carrier characteristics of natural gas without the greenhouse gas or other environmental impacts. It can be similarly delivered as gas, or liquefied for transport. Its heat value is more than double that of natural gas or any other fossil fuel. Further, the energy conversion efficiency when hydrogen is consumed in a fuel cell is much higher than any combustion process.

Energy Storage

Energy storage methods retain energy from a power source and store it for later use. This capability is particularly critical for balancing electrical demand in grids or microgrids that rely wholly or in part on intermittent renewable power sources (e.g. solar or wind).

Commonly used forms of energy storage include hydroelectric (i.e. "hydro") for large scale storage, and lithium-ion batteries for small to moderate energy storage. For grid-scale energy storage where the local terrain doesn't support hydro - which is most locations - there are few feasible options and even fewer proven systems. Lifecycle battery costs at this scale become untenable.

Overgeneration from renewables that is currently curtailed when insufficient demand exists can be used to electrolyze water into hydrogen and oxygen. The hydrogen is then stored until demand exceeds renewables capacity, at which point it is fed to fuel cells to generate the additional electricity needed.

Hydrogen energy storage is rapidly being recognized as a frontrunner solution for large scale applications where it has already been deployed in many locations. And more capacity is coming online at an accelerated rate. 

Universal Fuel

As previously mentioned, hydrogen has more than double the energy density of any fossil fuel option. It has been successfully demonstrated in nearly every combustion process imaginable, from internal combustion engines to turbines. Adjustment of the oxygen-fuel ratio is the primary modification required.

Ground, sea, and air demonstration vehicles using hydrogen have already been fielded with many more under development. These applications particularly benefit from the increased energy density of hydrogen relative to legacy fuels. And of course, carbon emissions are eliminated.

Over the last few years, introduction of a low percentage of hydrogen into natural gas pipeline networks has been tested in several global regions with promising results. Modification to residential and industrial burners will be required to increase the hydrogen percentage to more than 10%.

In short, there are no current fossil fuel applications that cannot be transitioned to hydrogen. Additionally, the higher flame temperatures that can be achieved with hydrogen will enable new applications and potentially enhance the efficiency of existing combustion-based systems.

Potable Water

The fact that hydrogen can be produced from water using renewable energy sources, and then returned to water form during usage, is generally well known. But many other feedstocks can be used to produce hydrogen. And when the hydrogen is used, potable water can be extracted in significant quantities.

Two of the more intriguing feedstock options are seawater and biomass waste. A hydrogen electrolysis plant located near a coast or on an island could desalinate seawater and produce hydrogen for energy storage, fueling, and/or export.

Likewise, dual production of potable water and hydrogen can be realized with agricultural waste and other recycled biomass as feedstock. In this case, potable water and hydrogen can be generated where little or no water is available.

The implications for drought stricken regions is immense, particularly where renewable resources such as solar are available in abundance. Secure and reliable energy, water, and food becomes possible in regions that are vulnerable to weather or other threats to these vital necessities.

Hydrogen has the potential to address all of the above. And in the process, restore the health and stability of our global environment for future generations.

Night operation HyERA™ example system model: renewable power is less than demand requiring hydrogen usage and producing potable water

Matt Moran is the Managing Member at Moran Innovation LLC, and previous Managing Partner at Isotherm Energy. He's been developing power and propulsion systems for more than 40 years; and first-of-a-kind liquid, slush and gaseous hydrogen systems since the mid-1980s. Matt was also the Sector Manager for Energy & Materials in his last position at NASA where he worked for 31 years. He's been a cofounder in seven technology based start-ups; and provided R&D and engineering support to hundreds of organizations. Matt has three patents and more than 50 publications including the Cryogenic Fluid Management report series. More about him can be found here.